I'm a bit obsessed with the International Dagger eligibles as books have begun arriving and that's what I'll be reading for the next 5 months. I've broken down my unofficial eligibles list into: by country and by gender (there is one male & female team). As you can see from the raw data table at the bottom the odds are slightly in favour of a male Swedish winner as has been the case for the previous two years, followed by an Italian male or Swedish female, but who can predict at this early stage?
NB. This is a snapshot of the eligibles list as of today which will no doubt change and doesn't take into account the instances where an author has more than one book eligible of which only one can be submitted eg Nesbo, Lackberg, Larsson, Eriksson, Kallentoft and Vichi.